{"id":300,"date":"2024-05-20T17:23:39","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T15:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.test\/the-agenda-fast-to-counteract-the-declining-birth-rate-in-italy\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T17:01:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T15:01:43","slug":"the-agenda-fast-to-counteract-the-declining-birth-rate-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/the-agenda-fast-to-counteract-the-declining-birth-rate-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Agenda FAST to counteract the declining birth rate in Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"

We publish below the introduction of the report entitled <\/em>\u201cFamily, Nurseries, Services and Times. The Agenda FAST to counteract the declining birth rate in Italy.<\/strong>\u201c, conducted by Percorsi di secondo welfare<\/a> for Lottomatica Foundation<\/a>. The report was edited by Maurizio Ferrera<\/strong>, full professor of Political Science at the University of Milan, Franca Maino<\/strong>, associate professor in the Department of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Milan and Celestina Valeria De Tommaso<\/strong>, a doctoral student in Political Studies at the NASP Graduate School of the University of Milan.<\/em> A full downloadable version of the report is attached at the bottom of the page.<\/em><\/p>\n

Thanks to advances in medicine and prevention, as well as healthier and safer living conditions, all OCSE countries are now characterized by increased longevity. This is certainly a positive phenomenon that, if governed well, generates an increase in individual and collective opportunities. However, the increase in the elderly population is also a \u201crelative\u201d phenomenon, as it is accompanied by a decrease in the younger population, due to the prolonged and steady decline in the birth rate over time. This second trend has initiated a real \u201cdemographic transition\u201d: births are not counterbalancing deaths, the total population is contracting.<\/p>\n

Some might ask: but what is the harm if the population decreases? Aren\u2019t there too many of us already? Two reasonable questions, but only on the surface. Let\u2019s do a thought experiment and imagine an Italy going from 60 to 40 million inhabitants. Reaching 40 million, the age structure of the population would resemble a kind of petal: an ever-thinning stem of children, widening into an oval between the ages of 45 and 65 and then narrowing to a spike of ultracentenarians.Fewer young people and fewer adults under 45, however, means less GDP. This is not a sustainable scenario.<\/p>\n

If we are not to fall below 40 million and become progressively extinct, at some point the fertility rate will have to rise again toward the fateful 2.1 percent of children per woman. To avoid demographic-economic catastrophe, therefore, there is no alternative: Italian families must be enabled to procreate more. And that needs to happen soon. What makes demographic transition a particularly problematic phenomenon is that when new births do not counterbalance deaths, the internal composition of the population suffers a marked distortion, so-called dependency ratios (the number of inactive people relative to active people) increase, and there are growing problems of financial sustainability for the welfare state. For several years now, more diapers have been sold in Japan than diapers. It is the \u201coldest\u201d country in the world: the elderly over 65 are 27 percent of the population and increasing every year. In the future, who will pay for diapers? If fewer and fewer children are born, the ratio of workers to retirees is bound to worsen, with negative effects on family incomes and especially on welfare.<\/p>\n

According to demographers, OCSE countries have entered what is called a \u201cdemographic winter,\u201d the phase in which the slowdown in fertility rates that triggered the transition seems to have reached its negative plateau and the wave of \u201cdegrowth\u201d is clearly making its effects felt even in the active age groups. In this general context, Italy is in a particularly critical condition, very close to Japan. In our country, degiovanization is particularly intense in terms of numbers (fewer and fewer young people) and is accompanied by the weak presence of young people in society and their low participation in the labor market. The dependence rate of the elderly on the employed reached a value of 0.4. Roughly speaking, each employed person finances from his or her own income the combined transfers and services of 0.4 elderly people: that is, he or she bears about 40 percent of the expenses. There are other elements to consider (e.g., intergenerational transfers, taxes still paid by those over 65, and so on). However, 40 percent is high in comparative terms, almost double that of the usual unattainable Nordic states. And the Italian dependency rate could reach 100 percent as early as 2050: one employed, one retired.<\/p>\n

Moreover, degiovanization also produces a significant contraction of women of childbearing age, those who can be counted on for generational replacement. The indication is alarming because it means that, all things being equal, even fewer children will be born in the future: there will in fact be fewer and fewer potential mothers. To use the language of demographers: the Italian transition has entered a \u201cscrewing\u201d phase, like a spiral. Indeed, the demographic basis for the functioning of the economy (decline in the working-age population) and for biological and social reproduction (decline in women of childbearing age) is being eroded. Rather than a demographic winter, it seems appropriate for Italy to speak of a true ice age.<\/p>\n

To view the full report, click the link below:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
Full report<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We publish the report edited by Percorsi di secondo welfare<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications"],"acf":{"associated_pillars":null,"is_featured":false},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=300"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":494,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/300\/revisions\/494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fondazionelottomatica.officine06lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}